Танкеры избегают пролив Хормуз после возобновления атак: трафик упал до двухмесячного минимума

Тanker operators are increasingly reluctant to navigate the Strait of Hormuz after renewed hostilities, leaving the Kavomaleas oil products tanker anchored empty in the Persian Gulf near Musandam Peninsula. The vessel signaled its position early Monday, confirming that its AIS transponder had been switched off during the inbound journey, a practice adopted by many ships to evade detection.

Сокращение транзитного трафика Since the cease‑fire collapse, tanker traffic through the strait has plummeted to a two‑month low, reviving fears of supply shortages amid peak summer oil demand. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy reported intercepting four vessels attempting the passage, two of which were stopped after disabling their transponders. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations recorded an incident 8 nautical miles northwest of Kumzar, Oman, underscoring the heightened risk environment.

Последствия для рынка нефти The abrupt decline in maritime oil product flows adds pressure on global supply chains already strained by geopolitical tensions. Analysts note that reduced Hormuz transits could tighten the market for refined products, potentially supporting higher spot prices for diesel and gasoline in the near term. While exact price impacts remain to be quantified, the disruption aligns with broader risk premiums observed across Brent and WTI benchmarks.

Прогнозы и рекомендации Market participants are advised to monitor alternative routing options, including the Red Sea corridor, and to reassess inventory strategies ahead of the summer consumption peak. With the likelihood of further escalations, a cautious stance—maintaining flexible supply contracts and diversifying sourcing—will help mitigate the risk of abrupt supply gaps. Overall, the situation signals a bearish tilt for oil product availability, though the full price effect will depend on the duration of the transit ban and the capacity of alternative routes to absorb the displaced volumes.

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